Week 4 best bets: Mississippi State to crush Kentucky again

Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (7) leads one of the SEC's best rushing offenses.

Kentucky running back Benny Snell Jr. has rushed for at least 50 yards in 23 of his 25 regular-season games, including 14 100-yard outings.

The two exceptions? Snell ran eight times for 38 yards at Alabama in 2016, and seven times for a regular-season career low 18 yards at Mississippi State in 2017.

The Wildcats have developed a strong running game. The offensive line includes multiple four-star recruits. Snell is a bona fide All-SEC candidate. The team now features a quarterback in Terry Wilson who averages 7.0 yards per carry.

Kentucky has run the ball 63.1 percent of the time this year. It is 13th in the SEC in passing yards per game.

In other words, this is the type of team that Mississippi State smothers.

Mississippi State's run defense ranks 13th in the nation, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. Defensive linemen Jeffrey Simmons and Montez Sweat are future high NFL draft picks and are first and second in the SEC in tackles for loss (TFLs). Those two, with fellow defensive linemen Kobe Jones and Chauncey Rivers, have combined for 17 TFLs in just three games.

Mississippi State also is completely committed to the run. Its offensive line is burly and powerful. Its defense gets to practice against a strong running game every day. Even after transitioning from Dan Mullen to Joe Moorhead, Mississippi State will run the ball down your throat if you let it, averaging 311.7 rushing yards per game.

All due respect to Wilson, but Nick Fitzgerald is one of the best running quarterbacks in SEC history.

Essentially, the Bulldogs are bigger and better bullies at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Last year, they wiped out Kentucky, 45-7, as 12-point home favorites.

Kentucky has added a better runner at quarterback, but essentially the teams are the same. This time, on the road, Mississippi State is a 9.5-point favorite, thanks in part to Kentucky's upset win at Florida.

I'm backing the Bulldogs again this week and feeling good about it.

South Carolina (-2) over VANDERBILT: The Commodores should be 3-0 right now after blowing multiple opportunities at Notre Dame last week. Give credit to Derek Mason, whose team has beaten the spread by a combined 55 points, tied for fifth in the country. I've moved Vanderbilt from No. 72 to No. 57 in my power rankings.

Much like a hot stock, though, there are some bandwagon Vanderbilt investors driving the market price higher than the fundamentals suggest.

Part of that this week has to do with South Carolina, which Georgia shellacked on the road in Week 2. Several handicappers and national media types predicted that the Gamecocks would at least keep it close, if not pull the outright upset. South Carolina got downgraded for that loss in part due to that narrative. And the Gamecocks did not play last week due to Hurricane Florence.

Georgia is my No. 2 team in the country, very similar to Alabama. There's no shame in losing to UGA this year. I still think South Carolina is the second-best team in the SEC East. Missouri will find out how fun it is to play the Bulldogs this weekend.

South Carolina has had an extra week to prepare for Vanderbilt. Will Muschamp remains one of the greatest defensive game planners in college football.

And the Gamecocks have owned the Commodores, holding a 23-4 advantage in the all-time series, including nine consecutive wins. South Carolina last failed to beat Vanderbilt by at least a field goal in a 2008 loss.

The market has overcorrected here, and South Carolina should win by at least a field goal.

Louisiana Tech (+21) over LSU: Ed Orgeron is now 8-1 against the spread (ATS) against SEC teams since becoming LSU's permanent head coach. He's also 0-3-1 ATS in his last four games against non-conference teams, including an outright loss to Troy.

Two weeks ago, against FCS team Southeastern Louisiana, LSU needed a Hail Mary at the end of the second quarter, an interception of the Lions inside the red zone and another interception that set up an 18-yard touchdown with less than two minutes left - to win 31-0 as a 40-point favorite.

Louisiana Tech returned eight offensive starters and 10 of its top 14 tacklers. It had a scheduled bye week on Sept. 15, getting an extra week to prepare for LSU.

This is a classic letdown spot for the Tigers after a road win at Auburn, with Ole Miss' high-powered offense on deck. I'm not betting against Orgeron in SEC play right now, but I will in these games against lesser competition.

Kansas State (+16.5) over WEST VIRGINIA: Speaking of the market overcorrecting, I think it has for these two teams as well. West Virginia and Will Grier feature a pass offense as good as any team in the country. But I still have a lot of questions about that defense, and a 40-14 win over Tennessee in the opener didn't teach us much, considering where the Vols are right now as a program.

In the meantime, Mississippi State demoralized Kansas State in Manhattan, Kan. But I give a lot of the credit there to the Bulldogs, which would be capable of winning a national championship if they had a good passing game (they don't).

I bet on Mississippi State and against Kansas State two weeks ago, and I expected that result. So I didn't downgrade Kansas State.

I suggest buying the half-point to +17 here. Kansas State has not lost two games by more than 20 points in the same season since 2009. Bill Snyder also is 24-9 ATS as a road underdog in the last decade.

I expect West Virginia to win, but Kansas State won't roll over and die in this one.

Northern Illinois-Florida State under 45: The Seminoles have underperformed more than any other team in the country, failing to cover the spread by a combined 78 points in three games. That's difficult to do. Instead of trying to figure out whether we're due for a correction from FSU, I'm banking on the fact that neither team is equipped to do much on offense.

Florida State has scored a combined 10 points against two ACC teams. Its offensive line has more holes in it than your favorite high school T-shirt. Northern Illinois has scored just 37 points in three games. The Huskies nearly covered a 10.5-point spread at home against Utah, trailing 10-6 deep into the game, but threw a pick-six late in the fourth quarter as the Utes won, 17-6.

Don't worry about the spread in this one. The first team to score in the 20s wins.

Washington State-USC over 53: Mike Leach flirted with Tennessee in the offseason, lost the Pac-12's all-time passing leader in Luke Faulk and then projected 2018 starter Tyler Hilinski tragically killed himself.

Leach eventually stole away Alabama's insurance policy at quarterback, as East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew Jr. appeared headed to Tuscaloosa before diverting to Pullman, Wash., to be a starting quarterback.

Washington State has defied expectations and looked every bit as good on offense, averaging 43.7 points per game. The Cougars scored 41 at Wyoming, a team with a defense that features several NFL draft picks.

Meanwhile, Washington State did allow a dreadful Wyoming offense to score 17, and gave up 24 to FCS team Eastern Washington last week.

USC's offense struggled mightily against Stanford and Texas the last two weeks, but true freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels and the running backs should have an easier time against Washington State.

Washington State's games have featured more than 53 points in 55 of its 75 regular-season outings under Leach, or 73.3 percent of the time. Most of those games have come against teams like San Jose State, Montana State and Portland State.

Go with recent history and bet the over here.

Last week: 4-2
Season: 8-9

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