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With Peak TV, The Golden Age Of Basic Cable Entertainment Programming Is Over

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Basic cable networks have been facing the same audience fragmentation that broadcast networks have been facing since the 1980s.

In 2009, ten basic cable networks reported percent double-digit audience year-to-year growth. Fast forward ten years to today’s more crowded video landscape, and we see that the average audiences of many top-tier cable entertainment networks have sharply declined. One reason is the lack of breakthrough (and higher rated) original scripted programming. (Average audience for cable networks are based on live + seven-day playback.)

USA: In 2009, USA was the top-rated basic cable network, averaging 3.27 million viewers in primetime. Ten years later, USA was still among the top-rated broad-based entertainment networks, but averaged just 1.23 million viewers. USA was the first cable network to produce its own original scripted programming, as far back the late 1980s. Since that time, USA has produced a number of highly rated dramas including Monk, winner of eight Primetime Emmy Awards (Tony Shalhoub won three of them). The finale of Monk in 2009 averaged a record high 9.4 million viewers. USA has also produced many other successful original shows including Psych, Burn Notice, White Collar, Royal Pains, Suits (with Meghan Markle) and, more recently, Mr. Robot with Rami Malek, who won an Emmy Award as Outstanding Lead Actor in the series before winning an Oscar for Best Actor in a Leading Role for Bohemian Rhapsody.

TNT: In 2009, TNT averaged 2.26 million viewers in prime time. Ten years later, the average prime time audience for TNT was cut in half to 1.12 million viewers. Similar to USA, TNT has also produced a number of successful original series. During its seven-season run, The Closer set audience records for an original scripted drama on cable. The two-hour series finale in 2012 averaged 9.1 million viewers, slightly below the third season finale of 9.2 million viewers. In 2010, headliner Kyra Sedgwick won a Primetime Emmy Award as Outstanding Lead Actress. TNT has also produced such popular dramas as Leverage, Saving Grace, Rizzoli & Isles and Major Crimes.

FX: In 2009, FX averaged 1.37 million prime time viewers. Ten years later, the average audience had declined to 703,000 viewers. Through the years, FX has introduced many critically acclaimed original series beginning with The Shield in 2002. The premiere telecast of The Shield averaged 4.8 million viewers. In 2002, Michael Chiklis became the first actor in a cable original series to win a Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Lead Actor. Since then, FX has produced such popular original series as Damages with Glenn Close (who won two Primetime Emmy Awards for Outstanding Lead Actress), Nip/Tuck, Rescue Me, Justified, The Americans, American Horror Story, Sons of Anarchy, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia and, most recently, Atlanta and Pose.  

AMC: AMC became a top-tier cable network with advertisers on the popularity and critical acclaim of several original dramas, most notably Mad Men, Breaking Bad and The Walking Dead. Mad Men debuted in 2007 and won numerous awards, becoming the first basic cable program to win the Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama (the show won the award in each of its first four seasons and Jon Hamm won a Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Lead Actor in 2015). Breaking Bad also won an Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama twice and Bryan Cranston won four Emmy Awards for Outstanding Lead Actor. The ratings for Breaking Bad grew every season and the finale in 2013 was a TV event, averaging 10.3 million viewers.

No original scripted basic cable program has been as popular as The Walking Dead. Ratings peaked in season five (2015), averaging 15.8 million viewers, and season four (2014, 15.7 million). At its peak, The Walking Dead was the top-rated entertainment program in all of television with Adults 18-49. Since its high-water mark, the viewership of The Walking Dead has steadily declined. For the premiere of the tenth season in October 2019, The Walking Dead averaged a series low 4 million viewers. As a result, since 2013, the primetime average audience delivery for AMC has dropped nearly in half from 1.38 million to 723,000 in 2019.

Other prominent basic cable networks have also reported a sizeable drop in their prime time audience in the past decade.

For example;

·       In 2009, The Disney Channel averaged 2.53 million viewers. In 2019, Disney averaged 534,000, a decline of 79%.

·       In 2009, TBS averaged 1.84 million viewers. In 2019, TBS averaged 1.16 million, a loss of 37%.

·       In 2009, ABC Family averaged 1.36 million viewers. In 2019, the rebranded Freeform averaged 593,000, a drop of 56%.

·       In 2009, Lifetime averaged 1.19 million viewers. In 2019, Lifetime averaged 705,000, a fall-off of 41%.

·       In 2009, A&E averaged 1.48 million viewers. In 2019, A&E averaged 1.06 million, a loss of 28%.

·       In 2009, ESPN averaged 2.3 million viewers. In 2019, ESPN averaged 1.75 million viewers, a decline of 24%.

·       In 2009, MTV averaged 805,000 viewers. In 2019, MTV averaged 607,000, a fall-off of 25%.

While there are other examples of audience erosion with cable networks, there are also examples of audience growth for some. For the fourth straight year, Fox News was the highest rated basic cable network in prime time. In 2019, Fox News averaged 2.5 million viewers, up from 2.2 million in 2009. When compared to a decade ago, MSNBC has more than doubled its primetime audience delivery from 811,000 in 2009 to 1.74 million in 2019. In a first, in 2019, The Hallmark Channel became the highest rated entertainment network on basic cable, averaging 1.27 million viewers, an increase from 1.11 million in 2019. HGTV averaged 1.31 million viewers in 2019, up from 1.20 million in 2009.

There are several reasons for the decline in the viewing among top-tier cable networks. Consumers continue to drop their cable/satellite subscriptions. In December 2009, there were 104 million household subscribers to cable television programming (90.5% of all TV households). In December 2019, there were 92.8 million household subscribers to cable television programming (77.0% of all TV households). As a result, several top-tier cable networks have lost over 12 million household subscribers in the past decade as viewers opt for other video platforms.

To combat cord cutting, several cable networks have launched their own a la carte online services to provide access to video content. These new services include AMC Premiere, BET Plus, Food Network Kitchen, Hallmark Movies Now, ESPN Plus and FXNow, to name a few.

Another factor: more programming competition. According to FX, in 2018 there were 144 original scripted series on basic cable. This was a decline of 17% from the previous year and the lowest figure since 2012. Additionally, 2018 marked the first time since 2011 there were more original scripted series on broadcast television than basic cable television. The strongest programming competition, however, is coming from online services such as Netflix, Amazon and others. In a first, in 2018, online services had produced more original series than basic cable. In 2013, basic cable accounted for 46% of all original series. This dropped to 29% in 2018. With more online services being launched, that figure is expected to further decline. In 2019 there were 532 original scripted series in 2019, annual increase of 7%, however FX will no longer break out the number by distributor.

In recent years, programming from online providers have also garnered more critical acclaim and industry awards than have basic cable programming. In the past, prestigious Emmy Awards categories have been won for such cable programs as Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Damages and Monk. More recently, they have been won by Hulu’s The Handmaiden’s Tale, Amazon’s Fleabag and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and The Crown on Netflix.

With more online services launched or soon to be launched, the audience erosion of many basic cable networks will continue.

·       In November 2018, Disney, the parent company of ESPN, Freeform, Disney Channel, FX and 50% of A&E and Lifetime among others, launched its online service Disney Plus. Disney will invest $1 billion in original content in 2020, increasing to $2 billion by 2024.

·       Comcast, the parent company of USA, Syfy, Bravo, E!, Oxygen and others, plans to launch its online service Peacock in April 2020. Comcast says it will invest $2 billion in content over the first two years.

·       It has been estimated that AT&T, the parent company of TNT, TBS and others, will spend $4 billion over the next three years for its online service HBO Max after it is launched in May 2020.

While these dollar amounts may pale in comparison to Netflix, which is expected to spend over $15 billion in content in 2020, and Amazon ($6.5 billion) or Apple ($6 billion), it is a clear indication these media conglomerates are investing in the launches of their online services. This will hinder program development at their cable networks (in 2019 Bravo, E!, CMT, VH1 and WGNAmerica stopped producing original scripted programs), as well as fuel continued cord-cutting and promote further audience erosion.

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