The Media Line: Cutting Aid to Afghanistan Could Push Taliban Closer to Russia and China, Foreign Policy Expert Tells TML

Cutting Aid to Afghanistan Could Push Taliban Closer to Russia and China, Foreign Policy Expert Tells TML 

A new Senate proposal seeks to ensure that no US taxpayer money reaches the Taliban through UN-managed financial aid to Afghanistan, but experts warn that the bill may have unintended consequences 

By Arshad Mehmood/The Media Line 

[Islamabad] US Senator Shelley Moore Capito introduced a bill in January aimed at preventing the Taliban and other terrorist organizations from accessing US financial aid distributed through the United Nations. The proposed legislation, titled the Stop Funding Global Terrorists Act, would require the US State Department to certify that American funds are not included in UN cash shipments to Afghanistan. Additionally, the State Department would need to ensure that no designated terrorist organizations benefit from US assistance. 

“The American people do not want their tax dollars funding terrorism,” Capito, the Republican senior senator from West Virginia, wrote in a statement. “This bill ensures that US aid is not used in UN cash shipments to Afghanistan or diverted to the Taliban, a group known for its oppressive policies, particularly against women and girls. If the UN cannot properly account for US funds, it should not be trusted with them.” 

Several Republican senators are supporting the bill. 

The misuse of US aid to Afghanistan has long been a concern, with billions of dollars lost to corruption, mismanagement, and fraud over two decades. Reports from oversight bodies, including the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), have highlighted how funds intended for development, security, and humanitarian efforts were often diverted by warlords, corrupt officials, and even the Taliban. 

Meanwhile, a group of Democratic US senators has raised concerns that the Trump administration’s foreign aid and immigration policies are leaving Afghan allies stranded and vulnerable. 

In a February 4 letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, the senators criticized policies such as suspending foreign aid, ending humanitarian parole, and halting the US Refugee Admissions Program. 

“These actions cast doubt on whether the United States will honor its commitment to our wartime partners,” Senators Amy Klobuchar, Richard J. Durbin, Richard Blumenthal, Christopher A. Coons, and Mark Kelly wrote, adding, “We made promises to our Afghan partners, and when the United States makes a promise—a covenant—we must keep it.” 

Senator Klobuchar shared the letter on her X account, amplifying the call for action. 

Capito’s bill responds to a May 2024 SIGAR report that revealed at least $10.9 million in taxpayer dollars had been diverted to the Taliban since August 2021 through taxes, fees, and payments. 

The report also noted that the UN received $1.6 billion in US funding for Afghanistan programs between October 2021 and September 2023, accounting for 63% of American aid during that period. 

In March 2024, SIGAR officials testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, detailing how the Taliban exploited aid programs. 

A January 2025 SIGAR report emphasized that the Taliban—whom the US does not recognize as Afghanistan’s government and has sanctioned—has no legal claim to billions in US funds. It urged the US to consider reclaiming nearly $4 billion allocated for Afghanistan. 

The report followed President Donald Trump’s order for a 90-day freeze on foreign aid to assess whether it aligns with his administration’s policies. Trump signed an executive order suspending US development aid on his first day in office. 

Earlier, President Trump accused the Biden administration of allowing billions of dollars to be funneled to the Taliban. “It’s not even believable. Billions of dollars, not millions—billions,” the president said. 

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s chief spokesperson, rejected claims that his group misappropriated US aid. 

“Donor countries, including the US, follow strict protocols for aid distribution, routing funds through their own NGOs, which operate independently based on established policies,” Mujahid told The Media Line. “The Islamic Emirate asserts that it does not interfere with this system.” 

He stated that US aid is channeled through nonprofit organizations to support education, food security, healthcare, and other welfare initiatives. He added that halting US aid “would directly impact ordinary Afghans” but would have little effect on the Afghan economy overall. 

As the US administration moves to halt aid, citing concerns over accountability and national interest, questions remain about the effectiveness of past assistance and the impact of cutting funds on ordinary Afghans already struggling under Taliban rule. 

Erik Lehmkuhle, an Atlanta-based global political analyst and expert on US-Afghanistan affairs, described Capito’s bill as “a safeguard to hold the UN accountable for its allocation of funds.” 

“The SIGAR report clearly shows where US funding has been potentially allocated to fund the Taliban,” Lehmkuhle told The Media Line. “Further investigation into this matter by the US Department of Justice is warranted.” 

He noted that while the bill would financially pressure the Taliban, it could also worsen Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis. 

“With the withdrawal of foreign forces that previously provided support, the Afghan people’s ability to engage with the Taliban will face notable constraints,” Lehmkuhle added. “However, this act is expected to offer Afghanistan an opportunity to establish a more balanced foundation for regional stability.” 

Brig. Gen. (ret.) Waqar Hassan Khan, an Islamabad-based defense and security analyst, told The Media Line that the proposed bill signals a significant shift in US policy. 

He criticized the Doha Accord, which ended the US war in Afghanistan, arguing that it was poorly implemented. “The Biden administration, acting on the advice of the US establishment, implemented the Doha Accord in a flawed manner—perhaps deliberately,” he said. 

Khan claimed that US funds transferred to the Taliban may exceed the official $10.9 million estimate. 

Former CIA officer Sarah Adams, National Resistance Front of Afghanistan leader Ahmad Massoud, and former Afghan National Security Adviser Amrullah Saleh have all publicly alleged that between $17 billion and $20 billion in US funds were funneled to the Taliban over the past three years. 

Khan said that Capito’s bill could financially weaken the Taliban while benefiting neighboring countries. “For the region, especially neighbors, the bill could be welcomed as it curtails Taliban funding for terror groups and proxies, weakening their influence,” he said. 

But he cautioned that cutting aid “could trigger serious humanitarian consequences, exacerbating food insecurity, healthcare shortages, and economic instability—challenges that would disproportionately impact civilians rather than the Taliban leadership.” 

Mohammed Zahid, senior researcher at the International Institute for Iranian Studies, noted that frozen assets, liquidity shortages, and a lack of international recognition have already strained the Taliban’s rule. 

“US aid has played a crucial role in propping up the Taliban government,” Zahid told The Media Line, adding that cutting aid will further deepen Afghanistan’s economic crisis. 

“The aid cut could push the Taliban closer to China and Russia for financial support,” Zahid said. “Alternatively, Trump could use US aid as leverage to distance the Taliban from Beijing, given Washington’s concerns over China’s growing influence in Afghanistan.” 

Despite these shifts, Zahid suggested that the US and the Taliban will likely continue to collaborate on fighting the Islamic State group. He also predicted that Trump will prioritize US strategic interests over issues like women’s rights, democracy, and media freedom. 

Arash Yaqin, a former UN adviser for the Afghan Foreign Ministry, described US policy toward Islamist groups as fluctuating between hostility and appeasement based on strategic interests. 

He said the US-Afghanistan aid freeze is likely to be made permanent, forcing the Taliban to rely on alternative funding sources. 

“For this strategy to succeed, Washington must break free from its long-standing cycle of appeasement and neglect toward jihadist groups—a policy that has repeatedly failed both American and Afghan interests,” Yaqin said.