In recent weeks opposition leaders have ramped up pressure on Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Simon Harris, and current ministers Jack Chambers and Darragh O'Brien, over housing figures that they trumpeted in the run-up to, and during, the last election.

Each said 40,000 homes would be completed in 2024, which would have been a surpassing of government targets. In the end, 30,330 were completed.

As a result, Sinn Féin has said the government "cynically misled the public" on its housing progress during the election. In response, the Taoiseach and Tánaiste say they used the figures in good faith.

So did ministers mislead the people by overstating progress on housing as the general election loomed?

Several reports and analyses were published in the months prior to the general election in November 2024. We have compiled and analysed key documents to try to understand where the 40,000 figures emerged from, and on what it was based.

11 June 2024

A report by EY Euroconstruct - an independent construction forecasting network - predicted that the pace of new home completions in Ireland was continuing to accelerate.

"New residential construction activity continues to expand in Ireland, and we are revising up our forecasts for housing completions for 2024 to 36,000," the report said.

This was a 3,000 increase on forecasts made in December 2023, when EY - Euroconstruct had said it expected 33,450 new housing completions in 2024.

The report also noted that the extension of temporary waivers had spurred a significant increase in housing commencements in the previous months.

The difference between commencements and completions is key. A housing commencement is counted when work begins on the site of a new home, a completion is typically counted when a new home is connected to the electricity grid.

The targets used in Housing for All, and typically when assessing housing output, relate to completions.

25 July 2024

Quarterly figures published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed new home completions for the year to date were below those published at the same point in 2023.

In the first six months of 2024, there was an 8.6% decrease in home completions compared to the same period in 2023, with 13,923 homes completed.

For many analysts, that indicated it was increasingly unlikely that the Government would meet the 33,450 target for 2024 set out in its own 'Housing for All' plan.

2 August 2024

Deutsche Bank’s research arm, Deutsche Numis, circulated a report projecting that 2024 home completions "will be well in excess of 40,000 units."

According to a report in the Irish Independent, citing one of the report’s authors, Deutsche Numis said there was a surge in house commencements over the previous 12 months.

The Deutsche Numis analysts noted that recent Department of Housing figures showed 33,784 homes commenced in the first six months of 2024, more than double the number of units commenced in the first half of 2023.

Although Deutsche Numis analysts did not expect all of those commencements to be complete within 2024, they said it seemed "realistic to expect that completions should reach government targets in the coming years if the growth in housing starts is sustainable."

For that reason, they said they projected completions "in excess of 40,000 units" in 2024.

21 August 2024

On 21 August 2024, then-housing Minister Darragh O’Brien wrote to then Taoiseach Simon Harris, then Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman.

Mr O'Brien said estimates from independent analysts, who were unnamed, "show we are on track to exceed our housing targets for 2024 and I estimate we will approach 40,000 housing units in 2024."

25 August 2024

Simon Harris gave a speech at Béal na Bláth, Co Cork. As Taoiseach at the time, he knew a General Election was just months away and that the exact timing of the election would be up to him.

During his speech, Mr Harris said that as a father of young children, he wanted to "solve this national malaise now, before it becomes their problem."

He then repeated a figure sent to him just days previous by the Minister for Housing.

"This year, we will exceed our housing targets with almost 40,000 homes built," he said.

4 September 2024

Michael Stanley, chief executive of one of Ireland’s biggest construction companies, Cairn Homes, said he thought housing completions would be close to 40,000 in 2024.

Speaking to the Irish Independent, he said he expected to see a surge in completions near the end of the year – including by his own firm – which would lift the number above the 2023 level.

11 September 2024

During a speech at a Fine Gael think-in, Simon Harris said housing was his "number one priority" and repeated the claim that housing completions would exceed targets.

"This year we are on course to surpass our targets and deliver 40,000 homes."

18 September 2024

The Central Bank released a quarterly report, citing data that showed home completions were down on the previous year for Q2, driven largely by a drop in apartment completions.

In December 2023, the Central Bank forecast that "approximately 31,000 units would be built in 2024."

However, it also cited data pointing to a continued growth in housing commencements.

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26 September 2024

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) released a quarterly report stating that in "the first half of 2024, housing completions dropped back to just over 12,700 units."

The report also said an increase in housing commencements seen in April may be due to changes in policies.

In April 2024, the Government agreed to extend the waiver on water connection charges and development fees for the construction of new homes to September and December respectively.

Builders who notified that construction on a house had commenced would not have to pay those costs.

The ESRI noted "while this may lead to higher housing output in 2025 if commencements follow a traditional 9-18 month transition period into completions, there is a risk that these starts are artificially high to benefit from the policy change and their time-to-completion may not follow typical patterns."

10 October 2024

Then Tánaiste Micheál Martin said in a video on social media that when the Government came into power, 20,000 homes a year were being built, adding "we’re now coming close to 40,000 houses being built a year."

24 October 2024

The CSO published figures for the third quarter of 2024 which showed an increase of 6.3% in house completions compared to the same period in 2023.

However, overall house completions for the first three quarters of 2024 were lagging behind at 21,634 compared to 22,325 in 2023.

That day during a Dáil debate, Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty asked then Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien, "does the Minister accept that there is no chance, despite all of his spin and all of his huffing and puffing, that the target of 40,000 completions this year will be reached?"

Minister O’Brien replied: "The target this year under Housing for All is 33,450. I have consistently said we will exceed that target. I still confidently predict - the Deputy and his colleagues in Sinn Féin will be disappointed - that it will be the high 30,000s to low 40,000s this year."

6 November 2024

An internal Department of Finance document titled ‘Monthly Housing Update November 2024’ was sent to the then Minister for Finance Jack Chambers, briefing him on house completion numbers and other housing-related issues.

The document was later obtained by Sinn Féin under the Freedom of Information Act.

The document cited the most up-to-date CSO figures at that time which showed that, overall, housing completions were down on the previous year.

"The figures to-date are broadly in line with recent revisions to completions forecasts from the Central Bank for 2024, which point to housing output similar to, or slightly lower, than last year," the document stated.

In the previous year, 32,695 homes were completed.

Ministers would later note that in 2022, the Central Bank projected that house completions would be approximately 25,000. However, the final number of completions, according to the CSO, was 29,851.

In 2023, the Central Bank said that around 30,000 completions were expected, however, according to the CSO, there were 32,695 house completions that year.

On the same day, then Taoiseach Simon Harris announced that the election will be held on 29 November.

Election Campaign 2024

During the election campaign, Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien, posted on X on 11 November saying, "Housing delivery has risen from 20,000 in 2020 approaching 40,000 homes this year."

On 12 November, then Minister for Finance Jack Chambers took part in a debate on Virgin Media television. He said: "When we entered office, we had about 20,000 homes being built a year, this year we’ll have over 35,000 homes being built a year."

29 November 2024

The election is held. Fianna Fáil emerged as the largest party, with 48 seats, followed by Sinn Féin with 39 and Fine Gael with 38.

23 January 2025

The CSO release its housing completion statistics for the full year of 2024. It showed only 30,330 homes were finished in 2024 - a drop of 6.7% from 2023. The biggest decline was in apartment completions, which dropped 24.1%.

Not only were the targets under the Housing for All plan missed by 3,120 homes, but the 40,000 figure cited was shown to be considerably off.

The finalised CSO figures showed that public servants had correctly indicated to Minister Jack Chambers on 6 November that the available statistics at that time pointed "to housing output similar to, or slightly lower, than last year."

On the same day, Micheál Martin was also sworn in as Taoiseach.

5 February 2025

During Leader’s Questions in the Dáil, Sinn Féin leader Mary-Lou McDonald accused Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Simon Harris of using the 40,000 figure as an "election ploy, an attempt to convince people that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had turned the corner on housing."

"The figure of 40,000 new homes was pure fiction, a trick designed to mislead the public because the Government could not face an election based on the actual facts of its performance on housing," she added.

The Taoiseach mentioned the Deutsche Bank, EY, and Cairn Homes reports, adding: "My commentary then was a genuine belief that we were heading for the high thirty-thousands, it was a genuine belief. There was no attempt to mislead anybody in that regard."

"We got the figure wrong in terms of what we thought might happen. The target was 33,000. We thought it would be much higher than that. I regret that."

7 February 2025

Speaking on RTÉ’s Claire Byrne programme, Tánaiste Simon Harris was questioned on the previous year’s missed housing targets.

Asked whether the government misled the public by providing the 40,000 figure, Mr Harris said you can only mislead people "if you provide information to the public that you know to be untrue."

It was then put to the Tánaiste that the government knew the 40,000 figure would not be met. Referring to the letter sent by the Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien to the three coalition leaders in August, Claire Byrne asked: "They [Minister and Department of Housing] shouldn’t have given you that figure, surely?"

"I think that’s true that they shouldn’t have given the figure," Mr Harris said.

"But I don’t doubt that the figure was given in good faith. They referenced, obviously, the basis of where they were getting that hope and expectation of a large number of houses."

9 February 2025

Speaking on RTÉ’s This Week, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said Fianna Fáil was repeatedly told that the final quarter figures would be much stronger, but this was not the case.

"We didn’t give false information..."

"It was not in any way a premeditated attempt to mislead anybody. There was a genuine belief that figures would come in strong in the last quarter," he said.

19 March 2025

Opposition leaders continued to probe the Taoiseach on whether he was aware of the housing projections seen by the then Minister of Finance in early November, just days before the election.

During Leader’s Questions, the Social Democrats’ Cian O’Callaghan asked: "Did the Minister for Finance share with him [Micheál Martin] the analysis from the Department of Finance that the 40,000 homes claim was not going to materialise last year? Did he share that analysis with the Taoiseach before the election date?

The Taoiseach did not confirm whether or not he was made aware of the Department of Finance document completed in November, but said he was aware of the figures published by the Central Bank.

"The fundamental point I am making is that the figures the Deputy is making a big song and dance about were published, not by the Department of Finance, but by the Central Bank in September. The Deputy and I knew them, but we had other figures saying they would be higher."

"The previous year, the Central Bank underestimated what we would increase by," he added.

In compiling this piece Prime Time put a series of questions to Ministers O’Brien and Chambers, asking specifically why figures from external analysts came to be relied upon by ministers.

On 6 November, Minister Chambers received a document saying housing output was likely to be similar to or below 2024. Asked why he appears to have relied on other information for his forecast of 2024 housing output, Minister Chambers said: "The November 2024 submission referenced CSO data published on October 24th, 2024 and previous Central Bank projections. This information was not new."

"The Minister was already aware of these inputs from the CSO and the Central Bank."

"There were many different bodies and agencies giving varied projections on housing numbers at the time which were in the public domain."

Prime Time asked then Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien a number of specific questions about why he relied on figures from independent analysts, as opposed to estimates from within the public service.

Minister O’Brien did not respond.

On 5 February, speaking on RTÉ Radio’s Drivetime, Minister O’Brien said: "There were a number of independent reports, the EY Euroconstruct report, which was in July, which said we would do over 36,000 homes this year and 41,000 in 2025. Cairn Homes, Deutsche Bank, and indeed others."

"None of the projections proved to be correct, even from the State agencies."