Phog Allen Fieldhouse on the campus of the University of Kansas is hyped by many in the media as providing one of the largest college basketball home-court advantages in the country. “You can’t beat Kansas in Lawrence!”
That multi-year marketing blitz has neglected to mention that it’s not that hard for visiting teams from major conferences to cover point spreads there. Big 12 opponents in particular aren’t wowed by the environment. Iowa State will be the next league rival to take a shot in this week’s Big Monday nightcap (ESPN, 8 p.m.)
Last Monday, Kansas (-7) survived Texas 80-78 in a non-cover. That dropped the Jayhawks to 1-2 against the spread this season in league play.
Kansas at home vs. Big 12 Opponents
- 2018-19: 1-2 ATS
- 2017-18: 2-6-1 ATS
- 2016-17: 2-7 ATS
- 2015-16: 4-5 ATS
That’s a grand total of 9-20-1 ATS, for a measly 31 percent cover rate in Lawrence for the Jayhawks the past three-plus seasons. Some home-court advantage!
In those years, Kansas also has home non-covers versus Villanova and Stanford (this season); Arizona State (last season); and Nebraska and Stanford (2016-17).
Now, non-conference cupcakes have struggled on this storied floor. We’re not suggesting Kansas has no home-court advantage, or a minimal edge. But, evidence is pretty clear recently that betting markets have been giving the Jayhawks too much credit in Lawrence against opponents who are less likely to be intimidated or bullied. If anything, the site might bring out the best in major conference challengers who want to make a statement with a great road performance on storied ground.
Generally speaking, home-court advantage in college basketball is worth three points. Some veteran sharps will use 3¹/₂ or a smidge higher in non-conference games, occasionally 2¹/₂ in conference games, particularly if the visitor has a lot of veterans. But, any large sampling will center around three.
It’s not hard to look “backward” to find teams who had extremes in either direction. Those are likely outliers that will regress back to the norm. If a team graded out to have a home-floor edge of five or six for a couple of seasons, you should still consider using three in your projections going forward. If a very bad team looked like it had no home-court edge at all, it will probably make changes in coaching or player personnel that will eliminate what made them bad.
New college basketball bettors often make the mistake of getting too cute, trying to find edges that aren’t really there. National TV broadcasts play into that trap by hyping angles that sound great as narratives, but don’t pass the research test. If you focus on team skill sets while using a standard three points for home court, you’re much more likely to be betting against media misinformation for real value rather than laying too many points on fog (or too many points “in Phog!”).